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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update
November 1, 2026

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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update

Following is an recap of market activity in Quail Creek for the month of October 2026.

We begin the month of November with 89 active listings, setting a new all-time record for listings in Quail Creek, eclipsing the previous record of 83 at the start of June. We began the month of October with 68 listings.

Of the 89 listings currently on the market, 80 are single family homes, 9 are Villas. There were 30 new (or returning) listings in October, and 8 listings were taken off the market. There are currently 11 listings under contract; 8 of those went under contract in October, and 6 listings closed escrow.

There have been 138 closed sales in Quail Creek so far this year, up from 126 at this point last year — a 10% increase in sales so far this year.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Quail Creek

Mortgage rates remain elevated amid inflation concerns

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Hotter-than-expected inflation, driven largely by rising energy costs, has renewed pressure on mortgage rates and increased expectations of another Fed rate hike. Rates initially climbed after the report, then eased, but remain well above last year’s levels.

The daily 30-year rate reached 7.56% after the inflation report before falling to 7.33% on Thursday. Freddie Mac’s weekly average held at 7.4%, still well above the 6.27% average from a year ago.

Fannie Mae’s revised forecast suggests rates may stay high for some time. It now expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 7.4% in the fourth quarter and 7.5% in 2027. Just a month ago, its forecasts were 6.8% for the fourth quarter and 6.7% for 2027; before the war in Iran began, it projected an average of 6% through 2026 and 2027.

The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but inflation and expectations about its policy can influence borrowing costs. A possible rate hike at the Fed’s Oct. 27–28 meeting could prolong the wait for lower mortgage rates. Rising incomes and cooling home prices are helping buyers regain some purchasing power, but high borrowing costs continue to limit affordability and will continue to weigh on housing activity.

In the meantime, adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) are becoming a more common way for buyers to manage high fixed rates, but they’re still a minority of the market, representing just 8% of mortgages so far this year.

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Surging mortgage rates stall housing activity

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The fall housing market typically gives buyers one last opportunity to purchase before the holidays, but surging mortgage rates have brought activity to a sharp slowdown.

Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.28% at the end of September—its highest weekly average in nearly three years. Daily rates measured by Mortgage News Daily briefly reached 7.6%.

The effect on demand has been immediate. Overall mortgage applications fell 6% in one week, purchase applications were down 14% from a year ago and refinancing activity dropped 56%. Pending home sales declined 6.1% annually, while contract cancellations reached 13%, the highest level since 2022.

Inventory continues to build, primarily because fewer homes are selling — not because significantly more owners are listing. Nearly 43% of active listings have undergone a price reduction as sellers compete for a smaller pool of buyers.

However, price reductions alone are unlikely to stimulate a frozen market. When buyers are sidelined by high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, a modest reduction may not lower the monthly payment enough to bring them back. In some cases, offering a seller concession that the buyer can apply toward a temporary or permanent mortgage-rate buydown may provide more financial relief than an equivalent price reduction.

For cash buyers, and those who can manage today’s financing costs, the slowdown may provide more choices and negotiating leverage. But sellers face a more difficult challenge — homes must be competitively priced, presented exceptionally well and offer clear value. Creative concessions may help an individual property attract attention, but the broader market is unlikely to thaw until buyers regain confidence or mortgage rates begin to ease.

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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update
October 1, 2026

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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update

Following is an recap of market activity in Quail Creek for the month of September 2026.

We start the new month with 68 active listings, down from this year’s high of 83 at the start of June — 62 are single family homes, 6 are Villas. There were 40 new or returning listings in September; 17 listings went under contract in September, and 13 were taken off the market.

Overall, September turned out to be a good month, considering the current market conditions, although most of the sales and showing activity was centered around the lower price points (under $500K), and before rates peaked above 7%.

There have been 126 closed sales in Quail Creek so far this year, up from 116 at this point last year — a 9% increase in sales so far this year.
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Filed Under: Market Trends, Quail Creek

Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update
September 1, 2026

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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update

Good morning, September! Following is a recap of market activity in Quail Creek for the month of August 2026.

We start the new month with 44 active listings, down from this year’s high of 83 at the start of June — 40 are single family homes, 4 are Villas. There were 21 new listings in August. Overall, August was out best month this summer with 12 listings going under contract, and 6 listings closed escrow. In addition, 13 listings were taken off the market in August (expired or cancelled).

The Summer of 2026 ends with 26 closed sales, down from 31 in the Summer of 2025, — down 16% from last year. Overall, there have been 112 closed sales in Quail Creek so far this year, up from 108 at this point last year — a 4% increase in sales so far this year. 
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Filed Under: Market Trends, Local News, Quail Creek

Quail Creek northern expansion plan moves forward

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Quail Creek map of proposed expansion known as Quail Creek Specific Plan 2.

Map identifying proposed expansion known as Quail Creek Specific Plan 2.

Quail Creek could eventually expand well beyond the neighborhoods currently under development.

The Town of Sahuarita is reviewing a revised proposal known as Quail Creek Specific Plan 2. The plan covers approximately 624 acres north of Quail Creek units 25BC, 28 and 31, and would allow for the development of as many as 1,850 additional homes.

A second version of the proposal was submitted to the Town on August 18, 2026, and is now under review. This represents progress in the planning process, but it is important to understand what it does—and does not—mean.

The plan has not received final approval. Public hearings before the Sahuarita Planning and Zoning Commission and Town Council will still be required, and no dates have been announced. There is also no construction schedule or confirmation that all 1,850 homes will ultimately be built.

The proposal is separate from the continued development of 344 new homesites in Units 38, 39 and 40 south and west of the Canyon Club. Those neighborhoods represent Quail Creek’s more immediate growth, while Specific Plan 2 could extend development much farther into the future.

Filed Under: Quail Creek, Local News

Quail Creek Water rates expected to decrease

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Quail Creek homeowners are expected to see lower water bills following a recently approved utility consolidation.

The Arizona Corporation Commission has authorized Quail Creek Water Company, Ridgeview Utility Company and Lago Del Oro Water Company to combine under the new name JW Water Utility Company.

According to the Commission, the approved rate changes are expected to reduce the average Quail Creek residential customer’s water bill by approximately 25 percent, or $8.59 per month. Actual savings will depend on individual water usage.

Although the consolidation and new rate structure have been approved, the Commission’s announcement did not specify when customers will first see the reduction reflected on their bills. Homeowners should review upcoming statements for the effective date and their actual savings.

The utility’s formal name will change to JW Water Utility Company, although its existing customer website currently continues to operate under the Quail Creek Water Company name.

Filed Under: Quail Creek, Local News

Quail Creek continues expansion

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New development reports from the Town of Sahuarita show continued expansion at Quail Creek. Site grading is underway for 111 homesites in Unit 38, while paving in Unit 39 (103 lots) has connected the future model home village area to Wigeon Lane.

A tentative plat for another 130 lots in Unit 40 is also under review, although it has not yet received final approval. The new units run west and south of the Canyon Club and east of Campbell Avenue

For buyers, this growth means more new construction options will become available in the future. However, continued building also matters to Quail Creek resale sellers. New homes, builder incentives and professionally decorated models will create additional competition. Resale properties may counter that advantage by offering established locations, completed landscaping, desirable views and valuable improvements without the construction wait.

The takeaway is straightforward: Quail Creek remains a growing and desirable community!

Filed Under: Quail Creek, Local News

What’s next for home prices and mortgage rates?

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What’s Next for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates?

The current housing market appears headed toward slow normalization rather than a major rebound or significant downturn.

Mortgage rates remain in the mid-6 percent range and are likely to stay elevated through much of 2026. Rates could gradually ease if inflation continues to cool, but buyers waiting for a quick return to 5 percent mortgages may be waiting longer than expected.

Home prices are also becoming increasingly dependent on local market conditions. In areas where inventory has increased, buyers have more choices and negotiating leverage, putting greater pressure on sellers to price competitively.

What This Means for Quail Creek

Quail Creek should remain relatively resilient, but rapid appreciation is unlikely in the near term. The individual home matters more than ever. Updated, move-in-ready homes, desirable lots, mountain or golf views, attractive outdoor spaces, and appropriately priced properties should continue to attract buyers.

Overpriced or dated homes may take longer to sell and require price adjustments.

If mortgage rates eventually move closer to 6 percent, buyer activity could strengthen. Until then, expect a more balanced Quail Creek market with greater competition among sellers and better negotiating opportunities for buyers.

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Jobs slow, raising hopes for lower mortgage rates

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The July jobs report showed a surprisingly sharp slowdown in the labor market, with the U.S. losing 23,000 jobs instead of the expected 83,000 gain. Wage growth also slowed to 3.2%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1%.

The weaker labor market reduces the likelihood of additional Fed rate hikes and could help ease pressure on mortgage rates, which are currently around 6.69%, their highest level of 2026.

For housing, the impact is mixed. Lower mortgage rates would improve affordability, but weaker job growth and consumer confidence could keep some buyers on the sidelines. The key takeaway is that a cooling economy may help stabilize or lower mortgage rates, but it could also continue to restrain homebuyer demand.

Filed Under: Market Trends

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Russ Fortuno, Associate Broker

I'm a Southern Arizona native and Quail Creek resident. Whether you’re buying or selling a home in Quail Creek, you’ll experience unsurpassed service and professionalism at all stages of your real estate transaction. I welcome the opportunity to assist in your next home sale or purchase.
Meet Russ

Tierra Antigua Realty

18745 S. I-19 Frontage Rd., Ste. A105
Green Valley, AZ 85614
(520) 333-0446
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