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What’s next for home prices and mortgage rates?

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What’s Next for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates?

The current housing market appears headed toward slow normalization rather than a major rebound or significant downturn.

Mortgage rates remain in the mid-6 percent range and are likely to stay elevated through much of 2026. Rates could gradually ease if inflation continues to cool, but buyers waiting for a quick return to 5 percent mortgages may be waiting longer than expected.

Home prices are also becoming increasingly dependent on local market conditions. In areas where inventory has increased, buyers have more choices and negotiating leverage, putting greater pressure on sellers to price competitively.

What This Means for Quail Creek

Quail Creek should remain relatively resilient, but rapid appreciation is unlikely in the near term. The individual home matters more than ever. Updated, move-in-ready homes, desirable lots, mountain or golf views, attractive outdoor spaces, and appropriately priced properties should continue to attract buyers.

Overpriced or dated homes may take longer to sell and require price adjustments.

If mortgage rates eventually move closer to 6 percent, buyer activity could strengthen. Until then, expect a more balanced Quail Creek market with greater competition among sellers and better negotiating opportunities for buyers.

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Jobs Slow, Raising Hopes for Lower Mortgage Rates

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The July jobs report showed a surprisingly sharp slowdown in the labor market, with the U.S. losing 23,000 jobs instead of the expected 83,000 gain. Wage growth also slowed to 3.2%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1%.

The weaker labor market reduces the likelihood of additional Fed rate hikes and could help ease pressure on mortgage rates, which are currently around 6.69%, their highest level of 2026.

For housing, the impact is mixed. Lower mortgage rates would improve affordability, but weaker job growth and consumer confidence could keep some buyers on the sidelines. The key takeaway is that a cooling economy may help stabilize or lower mortgage rates, but it could also continue to restrain homebuyer demand.

Filed Under: Market Trends

Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update
August 1, 2026

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Quail Creek Real Estate Market Update

Hello, August! Here’s the market update for the July month-end. We end the month with 48 active listings in Quail Creek, down from a high of 83 at the start of June — 44 are single family homes, 4 are Villas. There were seven new listings in July, seven listings went under contract, and 12 listings closed escrow.

In addition, 19 listings have been taken off the market since July 1 (expired or cancelled). Many of those were winter/spring listings that have not yet sold; expect to see many of those back on market for the fall season.

There have been 106 closed sales in Quail Creek so far this year, up from 99 at this point last year — a 7 percent increase in sales so far this year.

July was as expected, and we experienced the typical summer slowdown in the market. We saw seven sales last month, and nine in June. With the lower inventory right now, current sellers are in a better position with less competition, but expect to see a surge of new and returning listings over the next four weeks. It’s important to watch these new and returning listings, as pricing may be more attractive, elevating competition for buyers.
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Filed Under: Market Trends

New era at the Fed: Warsh confirmed as Chair

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Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 as the new chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. Warsh previously served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and will now lead the central bank during a period of ongoing inflation concerns, economic uncertainty, and debate over future interest rate policy.

While the President has pushed for lower rates, the Fed has so far kept rates steady this year after several cuts in late 2025. Some Fed officials have warned that rising inflation and higher energy prices could still require tighter policy if inflation does not continue easing.

For interest rates, Warsh’s leadership adds uncertainty to the outlook. The Fed chair does not set rates alone, but markets will closely watch whether the Fed becomes more supportive of future rate cuts or remains cautious about inflation. If inflation continues to cool, mortgage rates could gradually move lower later this year. However, persistent inflation or rising energy costs could keep rates elevated longer.

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A ‘Complicated’ Economy:
Why Buyers Are Hesitating in 2026

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The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals right now, and that uncertainty is shaping buyer behavior in a big way. According to Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, the economy is neither booming nor in decline—it’s somewhere in between.

On paper, things look strong. The S&P 500 has reached record highs, and unemployment remains below 5%. But beneath those headlines, consumer confidence has dropped sharply. Job growth has slowed, and concerns about artificial intelligence and political division are making many Americans uneasy.

Yun describes this as a “K-shaped economy,” where some households are doing well while others are feeling financial pressure. That divide is creating hesitation—especially when it comes to major decisions like buying a home.

This helps explain why the housing market hasn’t seen the surge many expected. Even when mortgage rates briefly dipped earlier this year, buyers didn’t jump in at the levels predicted. The reality is simple: confidence matters as much as affordability.

The takeaway? Today’s market isn’t stalled — it’s cautious. Buyers are watching, waiting, and weighing their options more carefully than in past years.

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Mortgage Rates, Fed Moves & What’s Next for Housing

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Mortgage Rates, Fed Moves & What’s Next for Housing

Mortgage rates remain the biggest driver of today’s housing market — and expectations have shifted.

Earlier forecasts suggested rates might average around 6 percent this year. Now, projections are closer to 6.5 percent, with the potential to reach 7 percent if energy prices stay elevated. Global events, particularly rising oil prices, are playing a major role in keeping rates higher.

Even so, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, does not expect a return to the extreme mortgage rates of past decades. Today’s economy is more energy efficient, which helps prevent the kind of spikes seen in the 1970s.

Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee is under pressure to act. With possible leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, there is growing speculation that interest rate cuts could happen later this year. Yun suggests a potential 50-basis-point cut this summer, though timing will depend heavily on inflation trends.

So what does this mean for the housing market?

Home sales started the year slower than expected, leading to a revised forecast of about 4 percent growth instead of the originally projected 14 percent. Still, demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s just more sensitive to rates and economic uncertainty.

The bottom line: this is a market driven by timing, but not in the way many think. Trying to predict the perfect moment may not be as important as being prepared when the right opportunity appears.
In today’s environment, readiness — not perfection — is what wins.

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Don’t Wait for the ‘Perfect’ Mortgage Rate

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Mortgage rates have been easing since late March, and that means more buyers will come back into the market. While it’s tempting to wait for rates to drop further, the reality is they move unpredictably — and small changes rarely make a big difference in affordability.

Waiting can actually cost more. As rates fall, buyer demand increases, leading to more competition, fewer homes, and potentially higher prices. A slightly lower rate won’t help if the home you want becomes more expensive or unavailable.

The smarter approach is to focus on readiness. If your finances are in place and you’ve found the right home, locking a rate gives you certainty and allows you to move forward with confidence. And if rates drop later, refinancing is always an option. Plus, there’s plenty of inventory right now, so it’s a good time to find most of what’s on your home buying checklist.

Bottom line: don’t try to time the market — be ready to act when the opportunity is right.

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Mortgage Rates Drop Slightly

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Mortgage Interest Rates

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.21 percent as of December 18, 2025, down slightly from last week when it averaged 6.22 percent, according to the Freddie Mac. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72 percent.

“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained within a narrow 10-basis point range over the last two months,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With rates down half a percent over last year, purchase applications are 10% above the same time one year ago.”

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.47 percent, down from last week when it averaged 5.54 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.92 percent.

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Real estate is still the best long-term investment

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Real estate is still the best long-term investment

With all the headlines circulating about home prices and mortgage rates, you may be asking yourself if it still makes sense to buy a home right now, or if it’s better to keep renting. Here’s some information that could help put your mind at ease by showing that investing in a home is still a powerful decision.

According to the experts at Gallup, real estate has been crowned the top long-term investment for a whopping 12 years in a row. It has consistently beat out other investment types like gold, stocks, and bonds. Just take a look at the graph below – it speaks volumes:Continue Reading

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It’s official: No asphalt plant near Quail Creek

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It was standing room only at Wednesday night’s Sahuarita Town Council meeting as opponents of a proposed hot-mix asphalt plant got the news they’ve been waiting 15 months to hear: Vulcan Materials has dropped its bid for the plant a half-mile north of Quail Creek.

The council made it official in a unanimous vote on a resolution that allows Vulcan to continue its mining operation while agreeing it will not now or in the future seek to put any type of asphalt plant on the site.

The agreement, which takes effect in 30 days, stays with the land, meaning if Vulcan sells the property the new owner would also not be allowed to operate an asphalt plant.

Via: Green Valley News

Filed Under: Quail Creek

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Russ Fortuno, Associate Broker

I'm a Southern Arizona native and Quail Creek resident. Whether you’re buying or selling a home in Quail Creek, you’ll experience unsurpassed service and professionalism at all stages of your real estate transaction. I welcome the opportunity to assist in your next home sale or purchase.
Meet Russ

Tierra Antigua Realty

18745 S. I-19 Frontage Rd., Ste. A105
Green Valley, AZ 85614
(520) 333-0446
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